How would 2024 MotoGP title picture look without sprint races?

How would the title picture look without sprints?

MotoGP 2024 Austrian GP
MotoGP 2024 Austrian GP
© Gold and Goose

It’s almost exactly two years since MotoGP announced that it would be adding sprint races to grand prix weekends from the 2023 cam𒊎paign.

A☂nnounced on 20 August 2022, days after riders first became aware of it through media reports, the half-distance contests instantly divided opinion - largely due to them being 🍰implemented at every single round.

While this was the norm in World Superbikes, many wondered if the untested format perhaps should have been trialled first at select rounds - more akin to Formula🤪 1’s sprint approach - instead of the all-in risk Dorna took.

While the addition of 20 extra races almost certainly contributed to no single contest last year fea🦹turing the en🌃tire full-time 2023 grid, the aim to boost trackside attendance did certainly come to pass.

And in terms of the championship battle, the s🎃prints ensured it ran 🔯to the wire. Based on grand prix results alone, Francesco Bagnaia would have been the runaway champion with 327 points versus 260 for Jorge Martin - meaning the title would have been sewn up in Qatar.

Eleven rounds into the 2024 season, we can now get a better understanding of whetꦍher or no𒈔t the sprint influence last year was merely a fluke.

After the Austrian Grand Prix last weekend, Bagnaia leads the way with 275 points𝓡, while✱ Martin is just five adrift on 270.

Removing the sprint points would create a championship top five that would look l꧙ike ꧅this:

1 Bagnaia - 218 (Current - 275)
2 Martin - 175 (Current - 270)
3 Bastianini - 161 (Current - 214)
4 Marquez - 134 (Current - 192)
5 Binder - 100 (Current - 128)

Ma😼rtin has done most of his damage in the championship this year on Saturdays, scoring a total of 9🥂5 points with a total of four wins and nine podiums overall.

Bagnaia has done solid꧟ly in sprints on 57 points with three wins, but its his haul of seven grand prix victories versus Martin’s two that would elevate him 43 points clear headinꦇg to Aragon if only GP points were awarded.

Intriguingly, removing sprint points would put Enea Bastianini closer to Martin in the battle for second in the standings. Currently, 56🐬 points splits them, but that gap would be just 14 without sprint results.

That would change the complexion of Ducati’s championship situation considerably, leading one to think the Italian braꦰnd may opt to utilise team orders more and try to use Bastianini as a proper tailgunner for Bagnaia.

Marquez’s championship situati♏on doesn’t really change much without sprint results. Currently 83 points off the lead, without Saturday points he would be 84 adrift - though with only 225 theoretically left for the remaining nine rounds even being considered an outside challenger would be tough.

Francesco Bagnaia, 2024 Austrian MotoGP
Francesco Bagnaia, 2024 Austrian MotoGP

What would the 2024 title battle look based solely on sprints?

If we take only the sprint points from this year, again the championship loo𓃲ks completely different.

As mentioned, Martin has remained the best sprint rider this season and would have a comfortabl𓃲e🧔 points lead based purely on Saturday results:

1 Martin - 95
2 Marquez - 58
3 Bagnaia - 57
4 Bastianini - 53
5 Vinales - 51

Martin would have a 37-point lead heading to Aragon, which is just over three sprints wins of advantage over his rivals. With 108 left up for grabs, Martin is heading towards an early wrap-up of what would be his second wor🍒ld title if the same scenario applied last year.

In this example, Marquez finds himself in second in a tight battle for runner-up spotꦜ alongside Bagnaia, Bastianini and Vinales - with the Aprilia’s Saturday form fully masking the deficiencies it has faced on Sundays.

Ironically, Marquez’s wait for a first race win since the 2021 Emilia Romagna GP would still be ongoing, with all five of his sprint podiums in 2024 second-place finishes. If sprint points were the onl💦y metric factoring into the title battle, it leads to a fun scenario where Ducati’s 2025 rider market drama would likely look quite different. But that’s a can of worms best left sealed.

What about the F1 system?

F1’s approach to sprints in having just six of them 🥃across its calendar offers the 𝔉occasional bit of intrigue to a race weekend.

Let’s say MotoGP had adopted this format and hosted sprints at💙 the Americas, Italian, British and Austrian GPs so far, with another sꦗet for the Emilia Romagna GP and a final one in Valencia.

The championship picture would look like this:

1 Bagnaia - 244
2 Martin - 200
3 Bastianini - 183
4 Marquez - 152
5 Binder - 113

I𝕴n this scenario, Bagnaia holds a commanding lead of 44 points over Martin, though again Bastianini is much closer to second at 17 points adrift.

Marquez’s champio🀅nship hopes remain remote, while the Sunday problems for the Aprilia means KTM’s Brad Binder sneaks ahead of Vinales into fifth - though only by six point👍s.

With the next sprint after Austria the second race at Misano, that could prove to be a pivotal moment either of the top four’s title hopes. In theory the Emilia Romagna GP will be a close affair, given everyone will have raced the San Marino GP and taken part in ꧂the post-race test there.

The threat of a ꦗfinal sprint showdown i෴n Valencia should keep the flyaways interesting.

While in every alternate scenario, the championship picture changes quite significantly, in none of them do we have a title battle✨ as close as we do now.

Sprints have had time to assimilate into the normal cycle of life in MotoGP now, so like anything the world just gets on♍ with it. But👍 with just five points splitting the top two in the standings after 11 round in 2024, we can say with certainty now that sprints have earned their keep.

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